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Thursday, January 27, 2022

Qatar’s GDP per capita to increase 16% by 2025: reports


According to provider of economic analyses and forecasts FocusEconomics, Qatar’s GDP per capita will increase to over $71,000 by 2025.

Qatar’s GDP per capita is set to steadily increase and scale up to $71,087 in 2025, according to economic analyses and forecasts provider FocusEconomics.

This year, the Gulf state’s GDP per capita will reach $61,223 as noted in a consensus forecast by the analysis provider. In 2022, it will amount to $64,331, $66,101 in 2023 and $68,600 in 2024.

The Gulf state’s GDP is said to exceed $200 billion by 2025. As for this year, the FocusEconomics consensus forecast is $172 billion, with $181 billion by 2022, $186 billion by 2023, $194 billion by 2024 before finally exceeding $200 billion by 2025.

As for Qatar’s fiscal balance, as a percentage of the GDP, it will be 2.7% this year, 4.2% next year, 3.9% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, and 3.4% in 2025.

The Gulf state’s public debt, as a percentage of the GDP, is also expected to reduce gradually until 2025, according to the consensus forecast. This year it will be at 64.7% of the GDP, 60.2% in 2022, 58.4% in 2023, 56.3 in 2024 before dropping to 54.3% in 2025.

The researcher’s consensus forecast on Qatar’s current account balance, also as a percentage of the GDP, reveals the country’s account balance to be 5.2% this year, 4.9% next years, remaining at 4.9% in 2023, rising to 6.4 in 2024 and then increasing to 8.0% in 2025.

Meanwhile, the country’s merchandise trade balance is estimated to scale up to $55.1 billion in 2025. This year it will be $41.4 billion, $41.1 billion in 2022, $46.2 billion in 2023 and $51 billion in 2024.

The consensus forecast on Qatar’s inflation (based on consumer price index) is 1.5% this year, while the country’s unemployment, as a percentage of its active population, will remain at a 0.2 until 2025.

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After shrinking in yearly terms in Q1, the Qatari economy’s year-on-year performance improved in Q2 on a favourable base effect.

However, underlying momentum in the country’s non-energy sector was constricted by tougher Covid-19 restrictions early in the quarter, as suggested by falling Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings in April and May.

Meanwhile, the energy sector showed mixed signs, with mining and quarrying output facing a sharp fall in June after expansions in April and May.

In Q3, activity appeared to be gaining traction after the easing of Covid-19 restrictions from late May as the country carried out its rapid vaccination campaign, with the PMI marking an 11-month high in July.

According to FocusEconomics, Qatar’s economy should return to growth this year as foreign demand strengthens and restrictions loosen to boost domestic activity.

Investments in the energy sector and the strengthening of relations with other Gulf neighbours are set to provide support growth to Qatar’s economic. However, a potential return of restrictions as new variants of Covid-19 spread may pose downside risks to this growth.

FocusEconomics forecasted a 2.7% rise in GDP in 2021, unchanged from last month’s forecast, before growing to 3.9% in 2022. Other analysts have forecasted that real GDP growth will strengthen in 2022, to 4.5% (from 2.9% in 2021), before easing to an annual average of 3.1% in 2023‑25.

Inflation rose 1.1% from June to July. Price pressures are expected to be higher this year than last year due to increased food and energy costs, recovering activity and a supportive base effect.

FocusEconomics estimate consumer prices rising 1.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1% from last month’s forecast. In 2022, it sees inflation averaging 2.4%.

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